Saturday, January 8, 2022

limits problems navigate creative

 

              "By three methods we may learn wisdom: 
                 First, by reflection, which is noblest; 
                 Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and 
                 third by experience, which is the bitterest." 
               <look up this quote> 
   ____________________________________

             Polybius, 1979, p.80
             “ I have recorded those events in the hope that the readers 
              of this history may profit from them, for there are two ways 
              by which all men may reform themselves, either by learning 
              from their own errors or from those of others, the former 
              makes a more striking demonstration, the latter a less painful
              one. For this reason we should never, if we can avoid it, 
              choose the first, since it involves great dangers as well as 
              great pain, but always the seconds, since it reveals 
              the best course without causing us harm.  
              From this I conclude that the best education for 
              the situation of actual life consists of the experience 
              we acquire from the study of serious history.  
              For it is history alone which without causing us harm 
              enables us to judge what is best course in any situation or
              circumstance. ”
              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polybius
   ____________________________________

  • not a rigid road map but principles of navigation

p.33 (pdf 38)
This work is principally social and organizational. 

p.33 (pdf 38)
Navigating.  Michel Serres' wonderful metaphors of the Northwest Passage is evocative (Serres 1980). 

p.33 (pdf 38)
The point, he says, is that the Northwest Passage is ever changing: shifting ice floes mean that last year's route will never be the same as the current one.  What we need to teach, then, is not a rigid road map but principles of navigation.  There is no one way to design cyber infrastructure, but there are tools we can teach the designers to help them appreciate the true size of the solution space ─ which is often much larger than they may think, if they are tied into technical fixes for all problems. 

pp.7-9  (pdf 12-15) 
II  Dynamics 

“Wizard,” “maestro,” and “leader” label roles, not people; they may be held by individuals, groups, or organizations, as well as in various combinations. Our emphasis here is not on heroic individuals — whose powers and importance are almost always exaggerated — but on the social features of this pattern. First, system building typically begins as a social act (even a dyad is a social system). Second, the wizard-maestro leader combination reflects the spectrum of crucial capabilities: technical, organizational, and social.

Government agencies have sometimes played key roles in the system-building phase of major infrastructures. During and after World War II, for example, the principal sources of support for US digital computing research were military agencies, especially the Office of Naval Research and the Air Force. Very large contracts for the SAGE air defense system helped IBM take the lead in the American computer industry (Edwards, 1996). The government has the ability to plan for the long term; the Dutch government in the sixteenth century, for example, planned forestry growth over the subsequent two hundred years as part of its naval construction infrastructure. Similarly, government has the ability to shepherd research projects over long periods of time – as witness the successful creation of the Internet.

source:
  Paul N. Edwards, Steven J. Jackson, Geoffrey C. Bowker, and Cory P. Knobel, Understanding Infrastructure: Dynamics, Tensions, and Design. (Ann Arbor: DeepBlue, 2007), 
NSF Grant 0630263 
Understanding Infrastructure 
https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/49353/UnderstandingInfrastructure2007.pdf
https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/49353/UnderstandingInfrastructure2007.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
   ____________________________________

Arthur B. VanGundy, Managing group creativity, 1984                         [ ]

p.148
Redefining the Problem 

Problems are abstract representations of what we perceive reality to be. They help to provide meaning for the many different situations we encounter. Without problems, we would be unable to distinguish between what is real and what is unreal. 
   Just as an artist uses canvas and paint to portray some feature of life, so do we use problems to paint pictures of our existence. Like the artist, we sketch a rough outline of a problem in our minds, fill in details, use shading and perspective, and produce a finished product. The result is how we depict reality. 
   What we consider to be real and unreal is entirely subjective. There are no absolute standards. We each create our own reality to use in interpreting our existence. Depending on our experiences and psychological makeup, what is real for one person will not necessarily be real for another. What you consider to be a problem may be of little concern to me, and vice versa. In one respect, your problems help you deal with your world and my problems help me deal with mine. Occasionally, such as in group situations, our worlds may collide or overlap. When this occurs, our individual perceptions of reality may blend, enabling us to work together to deal with our problem situations. 

p.149
   When we establish limits or boundaries for a situation, we are defining a problem; when we attempt to break away from these boundaries and see what lies on the other side, we are redefining a problem. Both these actions are highly interrelated and without a beginning or an end. Where one problem ends another may begin. 
   To define is to understand. When we say that we are defining a problem, we are actually clarifying our understanding of a situation by the use of a concept we call a problem. Problems are not situations. Problems are ways of understanding situations. Thus, when we redefine a problem, we are providing ourselves with a circumscribed way of viewing reality. 
   To redefine is to change our understanding of a situation. We may achieve such change by pushing out situational boundaries or by drawing them in, by altering the shape of the boundaries or by substituting other elements into the mix that makes up our problem situation. The situation always stays the same--only our understanding changes, because we have reconstructed the boundaries or changed the elements of the situation. The result is a new definition of problem. 

p.149
We need to redefine problems in order to increase our understanding of situations. 

p.149
In addition, when we have extensively redefined a situation, the odds are greatly increased that we will be able to avoid correctly solving the “wrong” problem. (Note that “wrong” problem in this instance refers to a situation that is not clearly understood.) This is perhaps the most important reason for redefining a problem situation. 

p.149
   In actual practice, an extensively redefined problem usually is a solved problem. 

p.62
A problem must be understood before it can be solved. And understanding cannot be achieved without diagnosis. 

[where you are in terms of problem-solving readiness]
p.62
   Although many managers and others involved in creative problem solving are aware of the importance of diagnosis to problem solving, it may be fair to say that they are much less aware of the need to use diagnosis before they begin  problem solving. Before you can begin diagnosing a problem, you first need to diagnose the context in which you will be doing your problem solving. That is, you need to diagnose the inputs, content, process, product, and outcomes before you start working on a particular problem. Then you need to take whatever actions are required prior to dealing with the focal problem.
   Another way of stating all this is that you must first solve the problem of where you are in terms of problem-solving readiness before you can begin dealing with the problem of primary concern. This first set of activities might be referred to as contextual problem solving, while the second set might be referred to as focal problem solving. When you are doing contextual problem solving, you are assessing your inputs, evaluating group understanding of the process to be used, and identifying and understanding the significance of content variables, understanding and analyzing product variables, and anticipating the effects and consequences of outcome variables. 

pp.89-90
Problem Dimensions
  magnitude
  history 
  location
  multiple causes
  threat
  time horizon
  people affected
  complexity 

   (VanGundy, Arthur B., Managing group creativity / Arthur B. VanGundy, 1. problem solving, group, 1984, HD 30.29 .V35  1984,  ) 
   ____________________________________

pp.41-42
Problem solving 

A problem does not have to be presented in a formal manner nor is it a matter for pencil and paper working out.  A problem is simply the difference between what one has and what one wants.  It may be a matter of avoiding something, of getting something, of getting rid of something, of getting to know what one wants. 

   There are three-types of problem: 
    • The first type of problem requires for its solution more information or better techniques for handling information. 
    • The second type of problem requires no new information but a rearrangement of information already available:  an insight restructuring. 
    • The third type of problem is the problem of no problem.  One is blocked by the adequacy of the present arrangement from moving to a much better one.  There is no point at which one can focus one's efforts to reach the better arrangement because one is not even aware that there is a better arrangement.  The problem is to realize that ‘there is a problem’ to realize that ‘things can be improved’ and to define ‘this realization as a problem’. 

   The first type of problem can be solved by vertical thinking.  The second and third type of problem require lateral thinking for their solution. 

  (Edward de Bono, Lateral Thinking: a textbook of creativity, 1970, 1977, 1990, ) 
   ____________________________________

J. E. Guy, Think yourself happy and health : a logical approach to emotional happiness, 1959

exposition banner book 

$3.00 (1959)

p.105
In a recent issue of a magazine devoted to mechanical subjects appeared an article which describe a method used by the Russians to drive piling into the ground to be used for the support of building foundations.  Some American engineers, visiting over there, happened to notice large pilings slowly moving into the ground without the usual pile driver.  A small motor was attached to the piling which caused it to vibrate.  These vibrations displaced the ground in a flowing movement which amazed the Americans.  The Russians were in turn amazed that we did not know this old trick which has been in use with them for a long time.  You see, our captive thinking, from the top down, would have prevented even the discussion of this idea. 
   ____________________________________

CHM Revolutionaries: Creativity, Inc- Author Ed Catmull in Conversation with Museum CEO John Hollar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfnK1vS9YJs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfnK1vS9YJs
54:06
Published on Jun 15, 2015
[Recorded: May 8, 2014]
creativity is about problem, it is far more than expression, and that managing it self should not be thought of as a controlling activity but as a creative activity, and the reason we make film, we want to touch culture in a positive way, and for me, it's a driving force, can I do something which has a positive effect, and ...
Ed Catmull reading from the book, Creativity, Inc:  my goal has never been to tell people how Pixar has figured it all out, but rather to show how we continue to figure out every hour of the day, how we persist, the future is not a destination, it is a direction, it is our job then to work each day to chart the right course, and make corrections when inevitably we stray, I already assess the next crisis coming around the corner (incidentally it did happen), we must accept it, just as we accept the weather, uncertainty ... the truth is as challenge emerge, mistake will ..., we will always have problems, many of which will be hidden from our view, we must work to uncover them and assess our own role in them, even if doing so means making ourselves uncomfortable, when we come across a problem, we must marshall all our energy to solve it, if those assertions sound familiar, that's because I use them to kick off this book, there's something else that bears repeating here, unleashing the creativity requires we loosen the control, accept risk, trust our colleagues, work to clear the path for them, and pay attention to everything that creates fear, doing all these things won't necessary make managing a creative culture easier, but ease isn't the goal, excellence is.   
   ____________________________________

  • development is the process whereby this information comes to exist

Richard C. Francis., Epigenetics : the ultimate mystery of inheritance, 2011

p.126
  These recipe/program metaphors are attractive because they connect the basic intuitions common to all versions of preformationism to human artifacts with which we are all familiar, from cakes to graduation ceremonies.11  Whatever their intuitive appeal, these metaphors cannot withstand even the most cursory scrutiny.  You couldn't cook up a single cell, much less a human being, given the instructions in the genetic recipe.  Much of what you need to know lies elsewhere. 
p.126
More to the epigenesist point, most of the information in the recipe that goes into making you is not there from the outset.  Rather, development is the process whereby this information comes to exist.12  The recipe is written during development, not prior to development. 

  (Epigenetics : the ultimate mystery of inheritance / Richard C. Francis. ── 1st ed., 1. genetic regulation., 2. epigenesis., 3. adaptation (biology), QH450.F73  2011, 572.8'65──dc22, 2011, )
   ____________________________________

Richard Buchanan, Wicked Problems in Design Thinking, Spring 1992 
Design Issues, Vol. 8., No. 2, (Spring 1992), pp. 5-21
MIT Press 

The problem for designers is to conceive and plan for what does not yet exist, 

Herbert Simon, The Sciences of the Artificial
 But Simon's methods are still analytic, directed toward the discovery of solution in some sense already known rather than the invention of solutions yet unknown. 

   (Richard Buchanan, Wicked Problems in Design Thinking, Spring 1992, Design Issues, Vol. 8., No. 2, (Spring 1992), pp. 5-21, MIT Press, 1992, )  
   ____________________________________

Arthur Koestler, The Act of Creation, first published in 1964

p.653
(pdf page 652/752)
ceteris paribus, on the nature of the challenge 
Familiar situations──that is, the novelty and unexpectedness of situation.  Familiar situation are dealt with by habitual methods; they can be recognized, at a glance, as analogous in some essential respect to past experiences which provide a ready-made rule to cope with them.  The more new the features a task contains, the more difficult it will be to find the relevant analogy, and thereby the appropriate code to apply to it.  We have seen (Book One, VIII, XVII) that one of the basic mechanisms of the Eureka process is the discovery of a hidden analogy; but ‘hiddenness’ is again a matter of degrees.  

p.653
(pdf page 652/752)
How hidden is a hidden analogy, and where is it hidden?  And what does the word ‘search’, so often used in the context of problem-solving, is apt to create confusion because it implies that I know beforehand what I am searching for, whereas in fact I do not.  If I search for a lost collar-stud, I put a kind of filter into my ‘optical frame’ which lets only collar-studs and similar shapes pass, and rejects everything else──and then go looking through my drawers.  But most tasks in problem-solving necessitate applying the reverse procedure:  the subject looks for a clue, the nature of which he does not know, expect that it should be a ‘clue’ (Ansatzpunkt, point d'appui), a link to a type of problem familiar to him. 

p.654
(pdf page 653/752)
Instead of looking through a given filter-frame for an object which matches the filter, he must try out one frame after another to look at the object before his nose, until he finds the frame into which it fits, i.e. until the problem presents some familiar aspect──which is then perceived as an analogy with past experience and allows him to come to grips with it. 

p.654
(pdf page 653/752)
  This search for the appropriate matrix, or rule of the game to tackle the process, is never quite random; the various types of guidance at the fumbling, groping, trying stages have been discussed before.  Among the criteria which distinguish originality from routine are the  level of consciousness  on which the search is conducted, the  type of guidance  on which the subject relies, and the  nature of obstacle  which he has to overcome. 

Arthur Koestler, The Act of Creation, first published in 1964

filename:  Arthur-Koestler-The-Act-of-Creation.pdf 
   ____________________________________

([ strict process control for routine evolutions    ])  ([ process    ])
([ concurrently encourage challenges to this system ])  ([ innovation ])

Dave Oliver, Against the tide, 2014                                         [ ]

p.74
   Of course, the people who appreciate the need to follow process may not be the same individuals who embrace innovation. A successful organization needs people with  both personality types to coexist and excel. The critical management question is, How in the world should talent be parsed to accomplish both goals?
   We have discussed how the nuclear-submarine forces approached this problem. They determined what was routine, established a process to control that action, assigned the routine processes to the junior personnel, and tasked senior managers (expected to be more capable) with innovation. But what happened when a bad process was inadvertently installed and accepted? 

pp.121-122
Rickover lived his life by the measures he had publicly listed during his U.S. Naval Postgraduate School address in 1954, and one of those was that rules limit progress.10
   By insisting on strict process control for routine evolutions yet concurrently encouraging individuals to challenge his system and his processes, Rickover was able to institute a scheme in which individuals did not have to choose between process and innovation.11 
   10. 
   11. His system had other subtle values. Those who brought up fraudulent challenges (i.e., their challenges were technically incorrect) to the system identified themselves as fools who needed more careful watching. At the same time, multiple challenges to the same processes, even if the challenges were flawed, indicated one of two issues. Either there was a misunderstanding of what the process was attempting to achieve, or there was a process flaw as yet uncovered. In any case, it indicated that a more flexible mind should reexamine the problem. 

p.130
   I thought it was noteworthy that no one ever discussed the key training differentiator. Good people are always harder to find than money. 

p.137
In December 1989 off Malta, when President Bush met with President Gorbachev on board the Soviet flagship Gorki, Marshal Sergei F. Akhromeyev handed President Bush the Soviet military leader's own morning intelligence report pictorial, shown in map 1. His accompanying words were significant: “We have read every one of your submarine messages for ten years and have been unable to find or kill even one of them. We quit.”2

164n2
   2. As mentioned previously, the Soviets were able to read our submarine correspondence as a result of the Walker-Whitworth spy ring, which had sold submarine communication code lists to the Soviet Union. This quotation was provided to me by Vice Adm. J. D. Williams, who also gave me a copy of the chart who was present that day in his role as commander, Sixth Fleet. 

p.143
   3. USS Thresher was lost on 10 April 1963. Thresher was the first class of nuclear submarines built by the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard under the laissez-faire concept then in vogue at the Bureau of Ships. All five previous classes of nuclear submarines, as well as the one-of-a-kind Nautilus and Seawolf, had been designed at Electric Boat in Groton (New London), Connecticut, a private shipyard operated much more in consonance with Rickover's technical guidance. 

p.145 
   ... [...] ... 
   Finally, late one evening in the early seventies, while cursing and reading through the many volumes of the Bureau of Ships manual, I discovered an interesting paragraph. While I could not myself make any alteration to the ship without the Bureau of Ships approval, in an emergency I could make “an alteration in lieu of a repair” to the ship. All I had to do to make this legal was to promptly notify the bureau via the chain of command.
   I remember rereading the paragraph several times. The wording did not define the level of emergency. I also remember leaning back in my chair and looking at the list of current engineering problems taped above my desk. A rational person would surely accept that on Nautilus I was dealing with an emergency each and every day. In fact, at that very moment I had nearly thirty (30) unresolved requests to the bureau for nonnuclear alterations, and not one bureaucrat had yet seen fit to even say boo in reply. The one that irritated me the most was a four-hundred-cycle (400-cycle) electrical generator located underneath a lithium bromide air-conditioning drain. With great care and a lot of work, we could get the electrical machine working for only a couple of days before something happened and the motor was once again drenched with seawater. The remainder of the time, the electrical unit was either on fire or bagged in plastic, waiting to be removed and repaired. 
   The next day I declared an emergency and moved the generator forty feet aft to a dry location above the main shaft. I filled out, signed, and mailed away all the neccessary paper, positive the silent bureau would never respond. Soon we had accomplished most of the other changes for which we had previously requested approval. 
   I will not pretend that no displeasure was expressed during the next annual review of my records, performed by five members of the staff for the Atlantic commander in chief (the same fleet commander who I believed had been less than diligent in answering my mail). And I won't pretend we passed that inspection. However, ultimately, none of my people died--and the chain of command started paying attention to what I wanted to change. 

   (Against the tide : Rickover's leadership principles and the rise of the nuclear Navy / Rear Admiral Dave Oliver, USN (Ret.)., 1. Rickover, Hyman George., 2. admirals--united states--biography., 3. united states. navy--officers--biography., 4. nuclear submarines--united states--history--20th century., 5. nuclear warships--united states--safety measures--history., 6. marine nuclear reactor plants--united states--safety measures--history., 7. united states. navy--management., 8. leadership--united states., 2014, )
   ____________________________________

      Manifesto for Agile Software Development
 
      We are uncovering better ways of developing 
      software by doing it and helping others do it. 
      Through this work we have come to value: 

INDIVIDUALS and INTERACTIONS over processes and tools  
            WORKING SOFTWARE over comprehensive documentation 
      CUSTOMER COLLABORATION over contract negotiation
        RESPONDING to CHANGE over following a plan 

      That is, while there is value in the items on 
      the right, we value the items on the left more. 
   ____________________________________
([
   It is not a question of right or left
                           conservative or liberal
                           rich or poor
   What are the limiting factors
     -  some examples of material limiting factors for most humans are things like like food, water, nutrition inside the food, vitamins in the food, mineral in the food, protein in the food, fiber in the food, material needs like clean air, housing, clothing for places that get cold and protection from the weather, ...  
     -  some examples of emotional and spiritual limiting factors are needs to belong, like a part of a family, a house of worship, a clan, a tribe, ... 
     -  intellectual, knowledge, causality and understanding can be a limiting factor, however, they are not a basic need for survival in our discussion.  

     -  intellectual, knowledge, and understanding as limiting factors would be within our boundaries when the factors are about food, habitat, cloth covering, transport, and health; 
         - for example, many food can not be eaten in a raw state (so cooking knowledge is needed) (implicit in that is the practical knowledge to start a cooking fire or a fire pit), and even with food that can be eaten in a raw state, you would need to be able to prepare the food to be ready for eating; so you can have the food, but no practical knowledge in the preparation of that food;  
         - on health (with two aspects of health, the first aspect being the maintenance of health -- also refer to as "prevention" -- for example, avoiding  smoking and second-hand smoke, or, you can eat this mushroom, but do not eat this mushroom because it is poisonous, the second aspect being knowledge needed to address the symptoms and causes of illness when you become sick, the third aspect being the stage of pre-illness -- the most under explore and under investigated aspect of health; and there is a reason for this, because the interactive and iterative process of diagnosing the stages of pre-illness is really tough, hard, and confusing.)
         - the whole package 
            - practical knowledge
            - experience, performance, to do 

     -  to paint one simple picture of the the limiting factors
        - the limiting factors could be who you know, strong ties and weak ties 
        - the limiting factors could be what you know, knowledge and understanding [meaningless; knowledge and understanding need context and perspective - environment full; knowledge and understanding is practical pointless without context, because the label (they) are environmental free]
     -  the limiting factor could be time, which is a very bad example, because time, mass, and gravity are basically the same thing
        - basically time exist in the material physical world 
        - time exist base on human activities
        - time exist as gestation of a baby in the mother's womb 
        - time exist as biorhythm, biological clock, and genetic clock
        - time exist as sun rise, sun set, moon cycle, high tide and low tide, and the changing cycle of the season
        - time exist as tree rings
        - time exist as the preparing the soil, planting, and harvesting of food 
        - time in it of itself is meaningless
        - ... 
   what is limiting or 
   what will become limiting very quickly at the current rate of development 
   once you have identify one limiting factor, 
   you can identify the next limiting factor, 
   once you solve one limiting factor, 
   you might soon discover the next limiting factor, waiting off stage, 
   after a few cycle of dispatching one limiting factor after next, 
   you would come to realize that, there are layers of limiting factors, 
   very much like peeling onions, 
   not only that, the limiting factor would shift or move, from one to the next 

    ])

([ 
    The Fantastic grain is the [“limiting factor”] 

    Progress is held up when a [“limiting factor”] forms in some component or subsystem, but then [Progress] begins again when the problem is solved – until the next [“limiting factor”] forms.

    This cycles of addressing the next [“limiting factor”] continue until the development of the technical system is exhausted; or until someone or a team of people over a period of time is able to overcome the next [“limiting factor”], then the technical developmental cycle is reset, begins again, or restarted.  

    If you were to replace the idea of “limiting factor” with the idea of “reverse salients”, or with the idea of “parameter threshold”, then the same general  message should apply. 

  •  http://eandt.theiet.org/magazine/2009/12/back-to-eda.cfm
     •  "When you play to the existing rules in business, the chances of winning are actually very low. The power is all with the companies that originally set them. So, the companies that are going to win in the longer-term will be those that set out to change and rewrite the rules. That's what I'm looking for."
     •  "Before these guys spend a dime, they're thinking about the exit and there are all sorts of numbers they want from that.  ..."
     •  pain point
     •  friction 
     •  “limiting factor”
     •  “reverse salients”
     •  “parameter threshold” 
     •  “The Fantastic grain” (see “Golden Fish Method” or Ideal-Real Transition Method, pp.181-182, Semyon D. Savransky., Engineering of creativity, 2000)

      ])

     •  “limiting factor”
     •  “reverse salients”
     •  “parameter threshold” 
     •  “The Fantastic grain” (see “Golden Fish Method” or Ideal-Real Transition Method, pp.181-182, Semyon D. Savransky., Engineering of creativity, 2000)

([ the solid-state transistor is the “reverse salients” or “limiting factor” ])

([ “reverse salients”, which defines as “components in the system that have fallen behind or are out of phase with the others.” -- Thomas Hughes]) 

([
    A necessity to overcome the [“parameter threshold”] of the currently limited technological capabilities of a society determines the mode of performance of a technique to be invented[,] and categorizes the problems to be solved in the second case., p.162, Semyon D. Savransky., Engineering of creativity, 2000 

     ])

([
   The limiting factor, to the next potential limiting factor: 
 
  “There are layers of limits around every growing plant, child, epidemic, new product, technological advance, company, city, economy, and population. Insight comes not only from recognising which factor is limiting, but from seeing that growth itself depletes or enchances limits and therefore changes what is limiting. The interplay between a growing plant and the soil, a growing company and its market, a growing economy and its resource base, is dynamic. Whenever one factor ceases to be limiting, growth occurs, and the growth itself changes the relative scarcity of factors until another becomes limiting. To shift attention from the abundant factors to the next potential limiting factor is to gain real understanding of, and control over, the growth process.”, p.102, Donella H. Meadows, Edited by Diana Wright, Thinking in systems

     ])
   ____________________________________

   • if you do not know the limiting factors, then you can use Ideal-Real Transition Method, or the “Golden Fish Method” to help you identify the limiting factors. 
   • subject matter experts can usually be found in high school, college, universities, reporters, journalists, writers, researchers (hollywood), researchers (freelance), in books at the library and the bookstores, in articles, in papers, in textbooks, ...


Semyon D. Savransky., Engineering of creativity, 2000 

pp.181-182
“Golden Fish Method” or 
Ideal-Real Transition Method
One of the main characteristics of inventive thinking is the ability to see the unusual within the usual and vice versa. Every fantasy or inventive situation consists of two parts: real things and fantastic grain. The aim of the Ideal-Real Transition Method (often called “Golden Fish Method” in honor of the famous tale) is to extract this fantastic grain. In order to do this, a fantastic situation is divided, step by step, into two parts -- real and fantastic -- until it cannot be divided any more. This indivisible part is called the “fantastic grain.” Altshuller gave a recurrent formula for resolving every fantastic situation

                           F0 = R1 + F1,

                      F1 = R2 + F2 (F2 < F1 < F0),

                      F2 = R3 + F3 (F3 < F2 < F1)

     Here R is the real part, and F is the fantastic part. The equation recurs until Fi will be so small that we may not consider it an unbelievable fantasy.
     Let's see how this method works on the example of the “tale of the golden fish.”
       The old man came to the sea and began to call the golden fish. The fish got to him and ask by human voice...


     Let's analyze this situation:
     Could an old man go to the sea? Yes, he could. So that part is real.
     We remove that part and are left to consider.

       The old man began to call the golden fish. The fish got to him and asked by human voice...


     Could an old man call the golden fish? Yes, he could. So that is also real. We are now left with

       The fish got to him and asked by human voice...


     Could some golden fish (we know that there are such fish) get near the old man? Yes, they could. So this bit is also real.

       The fish asked by human voice...


     Could the old man hear a voice from the fish? Yes, he could! We know that some fish make sounds. So that part is also real!

       human ...
  

     Could this voice be human? No, this could not. That is it! The fantastic grain of the situation is that the voice of the fish was human.
     But if we take even this fantasic thing of the golden fish story, we cannot consider it, because it can have a real explanation: Could it seem to an old man who does not hear well because of age that the golden voice is human?        Note that if the situation were a technical one, we would come to the physical contradiction determining the fantastic grain of the situation. For example, take the problem of creating pressure by a liquid, with the help of centrifugal forces, on a cylinder that is placed on the axis of the centrifugal rotation. The fantastic grain of the situation is that the direction of the centrifugal force is opposite to the direction of the needed pressure. One can easily formulate the physical contradiction now and then find its solution in the list of physical effects. (Try to do it yourself!)
     This method builds mastery of skills in the backward search of a problem's solutions that is important for some TRIZ instruments. 

    ( Savransky, Semyon D., Engineering of creativity : introduction to TRIZ methodology of inventive problem solving / by Semyon D. Savransky., 1. engineering--methodology., 2. problem solving--methodology., 3. creative thinking., 4. technological innovations., 2000, )
··<---------------------------------------------------------------------------->

William Stanley Jevons


Jevons paradox: Increasing the efficiency with which a resource is used increases the usage of that resource. William Stanley Jevons

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox 
    
    In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons' effect) occurs when technological progress or government policy increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises due to increasing demand.[1] The Jevons paradox is perhaps the most widely known paradox in environmental economics.[2] However, governments and environmentalists generally assume that efficiency gains will lower resource consumption, ignoring the possibility of the paradox arising.[3] 

  This in turn increased total coal consumption, even as the amount of coal required for any particular application fell. Jevons argued that improvements in fuel efficiency tend to increase (rather than decrease) fuel use, writing: "It is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth."[4]

  ([ as we learned to make better use of paper, we will over a longer-term use more paper, and finding more use for paper; one example, using a square piece of paper - in origami - to fold into a crane (a bird) ])
  ([ as we learned to develope circular use of resources, and as we learned to use those resources that was once considered to be waste and throw away, we should end up using more of it? ])

  Jevons argued that this view was incorrect, as further increases in efficiency would tend to increase the use of coal. Hence, improving technology would tend to increase the rate at which England's coal deposits were being depleted, and could not be relied upon to solve the problem.[4][5]

  Although Jevons originally focused on the issue of coal, the concept has since been extended to the use of any resource, including, for example, water usage[8] and interpersonal contact.[9] The expansion of slavery in the United States following the invention of the cotton gin has also been cited as an example of the paradox.[10] It is perhaps the most widely known paradox in environmental economics.[2]

  At the microeconomic level (looking at an individual market), even with the rebound effect, improvements in energy efficiency usually result in reduced energy consumption.[16]

  However, at the macroeconomic level, more efficient (and hence comparatively cheaper) energy leads to faster economic growth, which increases energy use throughout the economy. Saunders argued that taking into account both microeconomic and macroeconomic effects, the technological progress that improves energy efficiency will tend to increase overall energy use.[13]
   ____________________________________

Humphrey’s Law — The User Does Not Know What They Want Until Production
   ____________________________________

Conway’s Law — The Structure of the Organization That Designs is Constrained To Produce Copies of That Organization ['s pathway communication] Structure
   ____________________________________

Brooks’ Law — Adding Manpower To A Project Delays The Project Even Further
    Brooks's law: "Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later." Named after Fred Brooks, author of the well known book on project management The Mythical Man-Month.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks%27s_law
   ____________________________________

 • Pournelle's iron law of bureaucracy: "In any bureaucracy, the people devoted to the benefit of the bureaucracy - itself - always get in control, and, those dedicated to the goals the bureaucracy is supposed to accomplish have less and less influence, and sometimes are eliminated entirely."

Joseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and its discontents revisited, 2018, 2002 

p.267
A U.S. government enterprise called the United States Enrichment Corporation (USEC) would buy Russian uranium from deactivated nuclear warheads and bring it to the United States. 

p.268
Worse still, we at the Council of Economic Advisers had analyzed that it had every incentive to keep the Russian uranium out of the United States.
p.268
USEC adamantly denied that it would ever act counter to broader U.S. interests, and affirmed that it would always bring in Russian uranium as fast as the Russians were willing to sell; but the very week that it made these protestations, I got told of a secret agreement between USEC and the Russian agency.  The Russian had offered to triple their their deliveries, and USEC had not only turned them down but paid a handsome amount in what could only be termed “hush money” to keep the offer (and USEC's refusal) secret. 

Joseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and its discontents revisited, 2018, 2002 
   ____________________________________

Weber's law - Numberphile
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHG8io5qIU8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHG8io5qIU8
9:02
numberphile
May 25, 2018

sources:
https://science.slashdot.org/story/21/06/16/233201/when-graphs-are-a-matter-of-life-and-death

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/06/21/when-graphs-are-a-matter-of-life-and-death

The author of the New Yorker article is Hannah Fry
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannah_Fry

Hannah Fry is the presenter to this BBC, of sorts, show about some thing - I no longer remember - okay, what I remember is that she talks about math in ways that I can understand and, I know she knows about math from ... I don't remember... 
   ____________________________________

Allen curve
correlation between distance and communication is called the Allen curve because Allen found that frequency of communication between engineers drops off exponentially as the distance between them increases. After about 50 meters, there's very little communication among groups of engineers.

to ensure that everyone is within 50 meters. 

source: ???
   ____________________________________

Mark Stefik and Barbara Stefik, Breakthrough, 2004                          [ ] 

p.77
Fitt's Law predicts how quickly a person can move a hand from a starting place to a visible target. The time increases with distance to the target. It also increases when the target is small and hard to hit.

   (Stefik, Mark., Breakthrough : stories and strategies of radical innovation / Mark Stefik and Barbara Stefik., 1. technological innovation., 2. inventions., 2004, )

([ the principle that distance matters ])
([ in other words, the time needed to travel, to communicate, to move between any two different area (territory) (zone) does matter ])
([ examples, to move a mouse pointer and click on a target, to fire a missile to hit a target])
   ____________________________________

Summary

The Peter Principle states that a person who is competent at their job will earn a promotion to a position that requires different skills. If the promoted person lacks the skills required for the new role, they will be incompetent at the new level, and will not be promoted again.[1] If the person is competent in the new role, they will be promoted again and will continue to be promoted until reaching a level at which they are incompetent. Being incompetent, the individual will not qualify for promotion again, and so will remain stuck at this "Final Placement" or "Peter's Plateau."

This outcome is inevitable, given enough time and enough positions in the hierarchy to which competent employees may be promoted. The "Peter Principle" is therefore expressed as: "In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence. "This leads to Peter's Corollary: "In time, every post tends to be occupied by an employee who is incompetent to carry out its duties." Hull calls the study of how hierarchies work "hierarchiology."[2]:22, 24, 148

source:
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle
   ____________________________________

Parkinson's law is the adage that "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion".[1] It is sometimes applied to the growth of bureaucracy in an organization.

source: 
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law
   ____________________________________
Nov 19th 1955

Editor’s note (July 2020): In this essay from 1955 C. Northcote Parkinson described and defined the natural tendency for officials to make more work for each other. The charts have been updated to fit the website

      IT is a commonplace observation that work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. Thus, an elderly lady of leisure can spend the entire day in writing and despatching a postcard to her niece at Bognor Regis. An hour will be spent in finding the postcard, another in hunting for spectacles, half-an-hour in a search for the address, an hour and a quarter in composition, and twenty minutes in deciding whether or not to take an umbrella when going to the pillar-box in the next street. The total effort which would occupy a busy man for three minutes all told may in this fashion leave another person prostrate after a day of doubt, anxiety and toil. (C. Northcote Parkinson, 1955)

source: 
        https://www.economist.com/news/1955/11/19/parkinsons-law
   ____________________________________

Putt's Law and the Successful Technocrat is a book, credited to the pseudonym Archibald Putt, published in 1981. An updated edition, subtitled How to Win in the Information Age, was published by Wiley-IEEE Press in 2006. The book is based upon a series of articles published in Research/Development Magazine in 1976 and 1977.

The book proposes Putt's Law and Putt's Corollary

Putt's Law: "Technology is dominated by two types of people, those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand."[3]
Putt's Corollary: "Every technical hierarchy, in time, develops a competence inversion." with incompetence being "flushed out of the lower levels" of a technocratic hierarchy, ensuring that technically competent people remain directly in charge of the actual technology while those without technical competence move into management.[3]

source: 
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putt%27s_Law_and_the_Successful_Technocrat
   ____________________________________

Efficiency Dilemma, Jevons effect

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/12/20/the-efficiency-dilemma

 December 20, 2010 Issue
The Efficiency Dilemma
If our machines use less energy, will we just use them more?
By David Owen

James McWilliams, who is the author of the recent book “Just Food,” told me, “Refrigeration and packaging convey to the consumer a sense that what we buy will last longer than it does. Thus, we buy enough stuff to fill our capacious Sub-Zeros and, before we know it, a third of it is past its due date and we toss it.” (The item that New Yorkers most often throw away unused, according to the anthropologist-in-residence at the city’s Department of Sanitation, is vegetables.)

 Jonathan Bloom, who runs the Web site wastedfood.com and is the author of the new book “American Wasteland,” told me that, since the mid-nineteen-seventies, per-capita food waste in the United States has increased by half, so that we now throw away forty per cent of all the edible food we produce. And when we throw away food we don’t just throw away nutrients; we also throw away the energy we used in keeping it cold as we lost interest in it, as well as the energy that went into growing, harvesting, processing, and transporting it, along with its proportional share of our staggering national consumption of fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation water, packaging, and landfill capacity. According to a 2009 study, more than a quarter of U.S. freshwater use goes into producing food that is later discarded.

Efficiency improvements push down costs at every level—from the mining of raw materials to the fabrication and transportation of finished goods to the frequency and intensity of actual use—and reduced costs stimulate increased consumption. (Coincidentally or not, the growth of American refrigerator volume has been roughly paralleled by the growth of American body-mass index.) 

Stan Cox, who is the author of the recent book “Losing Our Cool,” told me that, between 1993 and 2005, “the energy efficiency of residential air-conditioning equipment improved twenty-eight per cent, but energy consumption for A.C. by the average air-conditioned household rose thirty-seven per cent.” One consequence, Cox observes, is that, in the United States, we now use roughly as much electricity to cool buildings as we did for all purposes in 1955. 

And access to cooled air is self-reinforcing: to someone who works in an air-conditioned office, an un-air-conditioned house quickly becomes intolerable, and vice versa. A resident of Las Vegas once described cars to me as “devices for transporting air-conditioning between buildings.” 

According to Cox, between 1997 and 2007 the use of air-conditioners tripled in China (where a third of the world’s units are now manufactured, and where many air-conditioner purchases have been subsidized by the government).

(Cox writes that, by 2014, the U.S. computer network alone will each year require an amount of energy equivalent to the total electricity consumption of Australia.) 

In India, air-conditioning is projected to increase almost tenfold between 2005 and 2020; according to a 2009 study, it accounted for forty per cent of the electricity consumed in metropolitan Mumbai.

Energy production may account for only a small percentage of our economy, but its falling share of G.D.P. has made it more important, not less, since every kilowatt we generate supports an ever larger proportion of our well-being. The logic misstep is apparent if you imagine eliminating primary energy from the world. If you do that, you don’t end up losing “between six and eight per cent” of current economic activity, as Schipper’s formulation might suggest; you lose almost everything we think of as modern life. 

..., population growth itself can be a Jevons effect: the more efficient we become, the more people we can sustain; the more people we sustain, the more energy we consume.
  <---------------------------------------------------------------------------->

Iron law of oligarchy

The iron law of oligarchy is a political theory first developed by the German sociologist Robert Michels in his 1911 book, Political Parties.[1] It asserts that rule by an elite, or oligarchy, is inevitable as an "iron law" within any democratic organization as part of the "tactical and technical necessities" of organization.[1]

Michels's theory states that all complex organizations, regardless of how democratic they are when started, eventually develop into oligarchies. Michels observed that since no sufficiently large and complex organization can function purely as a direct democracy, power within an organization will always get delegated to individuals within that group, elected or otherwise.

Using anecdotes from political parties and trade unions struggling to operate democratically to build his argument in 1911, Michels addressed the application of this law to representative democracy, and stated: "Who says organization, says oligarchy."[1] He went on to state that "Historical evolution mocks all the prophylactic measures that have been adopted for the prevention of oligarchy."[1]

According to Michels, all organizations eventually come to be run by a "leadership class", who often function as paid administrators, executives, spokespersons or political strategists for the organization. Far from being "servants of the masses", Michels argues this "leadership class," rather than the organization's membership, will inevitably grow to dominate the organization's power structures. By controlling who has access to information, those in power can centralize their power successfully, often with little accountability, due to the apathy, indifference and non-participation most rank-and-file members have in relation to their organization's decision-making processes. Michels argues that democratic attempts to hold leadership positions accountable are prone to fail, since with power comes the ability to reward loyalty, the ability to control information about the organization, and the ability to control what procedures the organization follows when making decisions. All of these mechanisms can be used to strongly influence the outcome of any decisions made 'democratically' by members.[2]

Michels stated that the official goal of representative democracy of eliminating elite rule was impossible, that representative democracy is a façade legitimizing the rule of a particular elite, and that elite rule, which he refers to as oligarchy, is inevitable.[1]  Later Michels migrated to Italy and joined Benito Mussolini's Fascist Party, as he believed this was the next legitimate step of modern societies. The thesis became popular once more in post-war America with the publication of Union Democracy: The Internal Politics of the International Typographical Union (1956) and during the red scare brought about by McCarthyism.


The Iron Law of Oligarchy is similar to the concept in The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism, a fictional book in the dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four (1949) by George Orwell. The book begins:[16]

      Throughout recorded time, and probably since the end of the Neolithic Age, there have been three kinds of people in the world, the High, the Middle, and the Low. They have been subdivided in many ways, they have borne countless different names, and their relative numbers, as well as their attitude towards one another, have varied from age to age: but the essential structure of society has never altered. Even after enormous upheavals and seemingly irrevocable changes, the same pattern has always reasserted itself, just as a gyroscope will always return to equilibrium, however far it is pushed one way or the other.[17]


source:  
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_law_of_oligarchy
   ____________________________________

Plato's five regimes

The philosopher Plato discusses five types of regimes (Republic, Book VIII; Greek: πέντε πολιτεῖαι). They are Aristocracy, 
                            Timocracy, 
                            Oligarchy, 
                            Democracy, and 
                              Tyranny. Plato also assigns a man to each of these regimes to illustrate what they stand for. The tyrannical man would represent Tyranny, for example. These five regimes progressively degenerate starting with Aristocracy at the top and Tyranny at the bottom.


source:  
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plato%27s_five_regimes
   ____________________________________

organization's communication structure

 

Clayton M. Christensen, Innovator's dilemma, 1997, 2000                     [ ]

p.34
    When Tom West, Data General's project leader and a former long-time Digital employee removed the cover of the DEC minicomputer and examined its structure, he saw "Digial's organization chart in the design of the product." 2
    Because an organization's structure and how its group work together may have been established to facilitate the design of its dominant product, the direction of causality may ultimately reverse itself: The organization's structure and the way its group learn to work together can then affect the way it can and cannot design new product.
  p.63 n2
    2. Tracy Kidder, The Soul of a New Machine (New York: Avon Books, Inc., 1981).

    (Innovator's dilemma, by Clayton M. Christensen, copyright © 1997, 2000, 658.4 Christen, p.34)
   ____________________________________

p.111
Who: organization chart.  This becomes intertwined with the interface specification, as Conway's Law predicts: "Organizations which design systems are constrained to produce systems which are copies of the communication structures of these organizations."1  Conway goes on to point out that the organization chart will initially reflect the first system design, which is almost surely not the right one.  If the system design is to be free to change, the organization must be prepared to change.

    1. Conway, M. E., "How do committee invent?" Datamation, 14, 4 (April, 1968), pp. 28—31.

    (The mythical man-month : essays on software engineering, Frederick P. Brooks, Jr. —— Anniversary ed., © 1985, Software engineering, p.111)
   ____________________________________

Conway's law

Conway's law is an adage stating that organizations design systems which mirror their own communication structure. It is named after computer programmer Melvin Conway, who introduced the idea in 1967.[1] His original wording was:

Any organization that designs a system (defined broadly) will produce a design whose structure is a copy of the organization's communication structure.[2][3]

— Melvin E. Conway

The law is based on the reasoning that in order for a software module to function, multiple authors must communicate frequently with each other. Therefore, the software interface structure of a system will reflect the social boundaries of the organizations that produced it, across which communication is more difficult. Conway's law was intended as a valid sociological observation, although sometimes it's used in a humorous context. It was dubbed Conway's law by participants at the 1968 National Symposium on Modular Programming.[4]

In colloquial terms, it means software or automated systems end up "shaped like" the organizational structure they are designed in or designed for. Some interpretations of the law say this organizational pattern mirroring is a helpful feature of such systems, while other interpretations say it's merely a result of human nature or organizational bias.


 Conway, Melvin E. (April 1968). "How do Committees Invent?". Datamation. 14 (5): 28–31. Archived from the original on 2019-10-10. Retrieved 2019-10-10. […] organizations which design systems […] are constrained to produce designs which are copies of the communication structures of these organizations.


source: 
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27s_law
  <---------------------------------------------------------------------------->

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_eponymous_laws

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_paradoxes

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus

  <---------------------------------------------------------------------------->

Napoleon

 

Merrill R. Chapman, In search of stupidity, 2006                            [ ] 

pp.299-300
   Many historians believe the principal reason that Napoleon was beaten at Waterloo had little to do with the specific tactics used on the field of battle but by the absence of three men from the campaign: Marshalls Bertheir, Lannes, and Davout. Bethier was Napoleon's chief of staff, a master of interpreting Napoleon's wishes and transmitting complex orders in clear, simple terms. After Napoleon's first exile, he switched sides and never switched back. During the battle, his replacement, Marshall Soult, proved unable to provide the same clarity of communications achieved by Berthier, and the French suffered mightily because of it. Lannes, a brilliant fighter who was willing to talk back to the Corsican [Napoleon was a Corsican] when he felt he was wrong, couldn't make the big event; he was dead, killed at the battle of Aspern-Essling. Davout, Napoleon's strategic equal and a man who would have crushed the Prussians at Wavre where Marshall Grouchy failed and thus made it likely Napoleon would win at Waterloo, declined to show up for the battle, tired of Napoleon and his endless wars. The marshals who did show up to support the emperor were for the most part brave men and competent, but they were also his managerial second tier. 
   A well-run company follows the example of Napoleon at his best (I'll pause a moment for all you current and nascent CEOs and future members of upper management to enjoy the frisson this analogy is generating, but please remember we're simply resorting to an analogy here; business is not war) and develops a well-rounded, high-quality management team. 

pp.300-301
   What I mean by “diverse” is the mental landscape of your team and the way they choose to use their abilities and ambition. In many companies, the founder and CEO tend to create an upper management team that is a clone of themselves. Each member of the team, when they look around, tends to see a somewhat distorted image of themselves that smiles back in approval and affirmation. 

p.301
   Another extreme is the management theory that the executive suite functions as an analog to the Roman Colosseum in its heyday. Periodically, members of the management team are expected to check in for fights to the death with each other held under the watchful eye of the company founder or CEO. The rationale normally offered for this practice is Darwinian in origin; by encouraging this type of ongoing fratricide, you are supposedly building a tougher, better business executive. 

p.301
Apparently, no one has ever considered the possibility that what you are evolving toward is a manage better adapted toward killing his peers than the competition. 

p.301
The best teams at minimum always seem to posses the following: 

  • Someone with the ability to successfully communicate the CEO's 
    idea and business goals to the rest of the company and its managers. 
    The “Berthier”.

  • Someone equal in business skills and abilities to the CEO, an
    individual who can step in and run the company in the event 
    something renders the company's leader hors de combat; this 
    person is also willing to step back into their assigned role and 
    take orders. The “Davout”.

  • Someone unafraid to challenge upper management's assumptions 
    and beliefs when warranted. The “Lannes”.

  • Someone with a strong understanding of the company's logistical 
    needs and capabilities (this can include the firm's finances). The 
    “Wellington”. (Napoleon and his managerial group never fully 
    mastered the importance of logistics, as the 1812 debacle in Russia 
    demonstrated.) 

p.289
 • The Product Marketing Handbook for Software by Merrill R. (Rick) Chapman. One of my other books, this is an extensive field manual for software marketing and sales. At almost 700 pages with more than 2,600 checklist items, it's the most comprehensive book of its kind. 

   (Chapman, Merrill R., 1953-, In search of stupidity : over 20 years of high-tech marketing disaster / Merrill R. Chapman.,  1. computer software industry--management--case studies.,  2. computer industry--management--case studies. 
3. business failures--case studies.,  HD9696.63.A2C53 2006,  338.4'7004--dc22,  
2006,   )
   ____________________________________

modeling of abnormal distributions

   • modeling of abnormal distributions was a problem largely unsolved in mathematics., pp.104-105, Sebastian Mallaby., More money than god ...